The ‘Scariest Chart’ Sparks Economic Debate
A striking chart circulating on social media has ignited widespread discussion about the U.S. economy’s current trajectory. Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 70%, while job openings have dropped roughly 30%. This alarming divergence has earned the chart a chilling nickname: the “scariest chart in the world.”
At face value, the data appears to suggest a tale of two Americas—one where investors reap enormous gains from artificial intelligence, and another where workers face dwindling opportunities. However, journalist Derek Thompson argues in a recent Substack post that the real story is more nuanced and complex.
Understanding the Data Behind the Chart
The numbers are indeed accurate. According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), job openings peaked at 11.5 million in March 2022. By August 2025, they had fallen to 7.18 million. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 grew from around 3,840 in late 2022 to approximately 6,688 by September 2025—a 74% increase.
This divergence is historically unprecedented. Traditionally, job openings and stock market performance tend to move in tandem. The current split has economists and analysts searching for deeper explanations.
Monetary Policy, Not AI, Is the Main Driver
Thompson suggests that the primary force behind this phenomenon isn’t artificial intelligence, but rather monetary policy. The timeline supports this theory. Job openings reached their peak in March 2022, several months before ChatGPT’s debut. Coincidentally, that same month, the Federal Reserve initiated a series of interest rate hikes to combat inflation, ending an era of ultra-low borrowing costs.
The Federal Reserve’s first rate increase in over three years occurred on March 16, 2022. It marked the beginning of an aggressive campaign that included 11 rate hikes through July 2023. These measures were designed to cool an overheating economy, but they also made borrowing more expensive—thereby curbing business investment and hiring.
By September 2025, the Fed began reversing course, cutting rates to avoid a potential rise in unemployment and stimulate sluggish job growth.
Other Contributing Factors: Trade and Immigration
Beyond Fed policy, other factors also played a role in tightening the labor market. Trade restrictions and stricter immigration enforcement have had a substantial impact. Policies introduced during President Donald Trump’s administration—including increased tariffs and immigration crackdowns—have raised costs for businesses and reduced the available labor pool.
A report from the National Foundation for American Policy estimates that immigration policies could shrink the U.S. workforce by 15 million people over the next decade, potentially reducing annual economic growth by nearly one-third.
AI’s Real Impact on the Labor Market
If AI were truly the main culprit behind declining job openings, one would expect sectors most closely aligned with AI—such as tech and software—to show the steepest drops. But the data tell a different story.
Preston Mui, a senior economist at Employ America, conducted a sector-by-sector analysis and found that the “Information” sector, which includes software engineers and tech workers, saw the smallest decline in job openings. In contrast, substantial declines occurred in manufacturing, construction, and energy extraction—industries heavily affected by high interest rates and immigration restrictions.
For example, construction job openings dropped from 303,000 in July 2025 to 188,000 in August 2025, the lowest in nearly a decade. By October 2024, year-over-year construction job openings had fallen nearly 40%.
Stock Market Gains Driven by AI Hype
While the labor market cooled, the stock market—especially AI-related equities—boomed. According to JPMorgan, AI stocks were responsible for 75% of the S&P 500’s returns and 80% of its earnings growth since late 2022. Roughly 30 companies tied to AI now comprise about 44% of the S&P 500’s total value, contributing an estimated $5 trillion in household wealth gains over the past year.
Much of the rally has been driven by tech giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta. Some, like Meta, have even cut jobs to streamline operations while ramping up AI investments. In January, Meta announced plans to eliminate around 3,600 positions, or 5% of its workforce, despite soaring stock performance.
Lisa Shalett from Morgan Stanley warned that the concentration of gains in just a few companies resembles the dot-com bubble. Today, the so-called “Magnificent Seven” stocks account for over one-third of the S&P 500—an unprecedented level of concentration.
Early Signs of AI’s Workforce Impact
Although AI may not be the primary factor behind the job market slide, early evidence suggests it is beginning to affect certain demographics. A Stanford University study revealed that workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed roles saw a 13% relative decline in employment. Meanwhile, more experienced workers and those in less AI-exposed occupations continued to thrive.
JPMorgan research added that the unemployment rate among college graduates reached 5.8% in March 2024—the highest in over four years—surpassing the general unemployment rate. Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli cautioned that while several factors could be at play, AI’s role cannot be ignored.
Still, the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects robust growth in AI-related fields. For instance, software developer jobs are forecasted to grow nearly 18% from 2023 to 2033, well above the 4% average for all occupations. The agency emphasized that while AI may automate some tasks, it also fuels demand for professionals who build and maintain these systems.
A Divided Economic Landscape
In his analysis, Thompson concludes that the “scariest chart” reflects a deeper truth: “There really do seem to be two economies right now—a booming AI economy and a lackluster everything-else economy.” Understanding the distinct forces shaping each of these economic realities is key to predicting future trends.
While it may be tempting to blame AI—or ChatGPT specifically—for declining job prospects, the reality is more complex. The convergence of tight monetary policy, restrictive trade and immigration measures, and an AI-fueled stock market surge have all contributed to the current economic landscape. Whether this represents a durable shift or an unsustainable bubble remains uncertain.
This article is inspired by content from Original Source. It has been rephrased for originality. Images are credited to the original source.